The time has come folks. The 2012 NBA draft lottery will take place tonight in New York at 8PM on ESPN. The fate of the NBA’s most pathetic teams will be determined by some plastic balls, rooted of course in mathematics and probability. The 2012 NBA draft may as well be called the Anthony Davis sweepstakes, as it is almost certain he’ll go No.1. Davis was National Player of the Year, averaging 14.3 ppg, 10 rebounds, and nearly 5 blocks.
Click here to read about the one thing Kentucky forward Anthony Davis is missing.
Back to the NBA draft lottery though. Statistically, the Charlotte Bobcats, who went an NBA worst 7-59 (.106 win %), have the best shot at the No.1 pick with 25%. Of course, it doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out that leaves a 75% chance another NBA team will land Davis with that pick. In fact, its probably
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better if the Bobcats don’t get it because their draft history with high lottery picks is laughable at best. Here are some of their and by “their,” I mean Michael Jordan’s top picks over the past several years: Adam Morrison (No.3), Brandan Wright (No.8), and Sean May (No.13). Exactly. If they fall out of the No.1 spot, they’ll land a top 4 pick and their options would be Andre Drummond (UConn), Thomas Robinson (Kansas), and Bradley Beal (Florida) to name a few. I personally am more hopeful that Cleveland lands the No.2 pick and takes Thomas Robinson. That would be an electric combination with Kyrie Irving playing the point.
Here are the exact odds for Wednesday’s draft lottery, including team record. For more precise combination statistics, click here. We have also included an early 2012 projection for these picks.
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1. Charlotte, 7-59, 25%- Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
2. Washington, 20-46, 19.9%- Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
3. Cleveland, 21-45, 13.8%- Andre Drummond (UConn)
4. New Orleans, 21-45, 13.7%- Bradley Beal (Florida)
5. Sacramento, 22-44, 7.6%- Michael Kidd Gilchrist (Kentucky)
6. New Jersey, 22-44, 7.5% (a)- Harrison Barnes (UNC)
7. Golden State, 23-43, 3.6% (b)- Jeremy Lamb (UConn)
8. Toronto, 23-43, 3.5%- Austin Rivers (Duke)
9. Detroit, 25-41, 1.7%- Perry Jones (Baylor)
10. New Orleans, 1.1% (c)- John Henson (UNC)
11. Portland, 28-38, 0.8%- Kendall Marshall (UNC)
12. Milwaukee, 31-35, 0.7%- Tyler Zeller (UNC)
13. Phoenix, 33-33, 0.6%- Damian Lillard (Weber St.)
14. Houston, 34-32, 0.5%- Jared Sullinger (Ohio St.)
(a) Pick to Portland if outside the top three.
(b) Pick to Utah if outside the top seven.
(c) From Minnesota (26-40)
There you have it. Once the lottery has been ironed out, we’ll provide in depth coverage and analysis on the 2012 NBA draft moving forward, including more mock drafts.
Raju Kansagra
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